Strong consumption and demand for secondary aluminum, promising prospects
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- Time of issue:2021-01-11
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(Summary description)"The prospects for the strong development of scrap aluminum consumption and demand are optimistic." On March 23-24, 2017, at the "Twelfth Shanghai Copper and Aluminum Summit" jointly organized by Shanghai Nonferrous Network (SMM) and Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Mr. Li Shilong, vice chairman of the Regeneration Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said.
Strong consumption and demand for secondary aluminum, promising prospects
(Summary description)"The prospects for the strong development of scrap aluminum consumption and demand are optimistic." On March 23-24, 2017, at the "Twelfth Shanghai Copper and Aluminum Summit" jointly organized by Shanghai Nonferrous Network (SMM) and Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Mr. Li Shilong, vice chairman of the Regeneration Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said.
- Categories:Company news
- Author:
- Origin:
- Time of issue:2021-01-11
- Views:0
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"The prospects for the strong development of scrap aluminum consumption and demand are optimistic." On March 23-24, 2017, at the "Twelfth Shanghai Copper and Aluminum Summit" jointly organized by Shanghai Nonferrous Network (SMM) and Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Industry Association , Mr. Li Shilong, vice chairman of the Regeneration Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said.
Li Shilong pointed out that aluminum is the third largest element in the earth's crust, with abundant reserves and theoretically no shortage. However, the extraction of aluminum ore into metallic aluminum requires a lot of energy and emits a lot of greenhouse gases. The production of 1 ton of aluminum consumes 9.6 tons of standard coal and emits 12 tons of carbon dioxide; the production of 1 ton of steel consumes 0.7 tons of standard coal; the difference is 13 times, so aluminum is much more expensive than steel, and the price difference is generally 5-6 times. Aluminum is widely used. In the past 60 years, the output of aluminum has increased nearly 40 times, and the growth rate is 5 times that of the steel industry.Therefore, the recycling of aluminum is not only to save resources, but also to reduce energy consumption and protect the environment.
Strong consumption and demand for secondary aluminum:
1. Global secondary aluminum consumption and demand trends
In 2016, the total global aluminum consumption exceeded 75 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. It is estimated that by 2020, the total global aluminum consumption will reach 110 million tons. Together, construction, automobiles and packaging account for two-thirds of total demand. In more developed industrial economies, the utilization rate of aluminum recycled raw materials is relatively high. The utilization rate of recycled aluminum in the United States is about 80%, and countries such as Japan, Germany, including the United Kingdom and Italy have also achieved efficient utilization of recycled aluminum.The increase in aluminum production will inevitably lead to the increase in waste production. In 2016, the total global secondary aluminum consumption reached 20 million tons, an increase of 5% year-on-year. It is estimated that by 2020, the total global consumption of recycled aluminum will exceed 25 million tons.
2. Development scale of China's secondary aluminum industry
In 2002, the output of secondary aluminum in China was only 130,000 tons. Except for the decline in output during the financial crisis in 2008, it basically showed an increasing trend year by year. In 2016, China's recycled aluminum production was 6.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 6%; of which 1.9 million tons of imported waste were used, and 70% was produced from domestic recycled waste. As the aluminum market basically stabilized in the second half of 2016, the secondary aluminum industry can be described as promising. At the same time, the country’s "13th Five-Year Plan" requires recycled aluminum to reach more than 30%. The more recycled aluminum is used, the less raw ore is relatively opened, the more resources are protected, and the environment is guaranteed. Therefore, in recent years, secondary aluminum companies have become bigger and stronger following the national environmental protection thinking. Some companies specializing in secondary aluminum in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Chongqing, Fushan and Jinshan have developed rapidly. For some secondary aluminum enterprises, the industrial extension rate has been developed towards high-tech. Shanghai Wantai has put into production in Guangde, Jiangsu, using scrap aluminum as auto parts. The industrial extension is moving from scrap aluminum to high-end products, not just to solve The high-end technology of the secondary aluminum industry has also generated great profits.
In terms of policy, my country has formulated the guiding ideology and basic principles of recycled aluminum during the 13th Five-Year Plan period: 1. Strengthen the integration of industry enterprises to form a group of enterprises with an annual output of more than 100,000 tons; in addition to quality, it also stipulates the quantity, prompting For enterprises, the future development should be bigger and stronger, the number of enterprises should not be too many, they must be large in quantity and good quality. Second, optimize the industrial layout; mainly to cultivate some key areas and parks for industrial development. The Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Bohai Bay are more concentrated in secondary aluminum and are relatively developed, and the industrial layout in the surrounding areas of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Shanghai is also relatively concentrated. . Third, speed up scientific and technological innovation; as we all know, recycled aluminum did not start very well at the beginning, the technology content is not high, and labor is restricted. It is now clearly stipulated that the overall technical equipment level of the industry must be significantly improved. What kind of furnace should be used for secondary aluminum? What kind of technology is provided? For example, the two-color reverberatory furnace aluminum mixing technology and combustion technology of secondary aluminum, the most basic equipment and technology should be popularized. The fourth is to promote industrial upgrading, which the country has always emphasized. Fifth, implement demonstration projects; six, play a guiding role; seven, encourage mergers and reorganizations; eight, cultivate superior enterprises. These are the eight principles for secondary aluminum during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, among which encouragement, mergers, and reorganization are more active in the secondary aluminum industry. Some enterprises cooperate with listed companies, cooperate with central enterprises, engage in technological innovation, and apply for national science and technology progress awards.
The scrap aluminum market has a bright future
1. The use of recycled aluminum raw materials in China
At present, the overall scale of China's secondary aluminum industry is around 10 million tons, mainly domestic recycling. In 2016, the aluminum alloy produced by secondary aluminum enterprises is estimated to be about 8 million tons, of which 90% are cast aluminum alloys and 10% are forged aluminum alloys (6 series alloys); the amount of new scrap transformed internally by aluminum processing enterprises is about 200 About ten thousand tons. At present, the market is discussing the problem of aluminum surplus, but there will be no surplus of secondary aluminum. If there is more secondary aluminum, and then invested in the recycling industry, the prospect is getting better and more opportunities. The East is not bright, the West is bright, and the Chinese market is so big.
The aluminum alloy produced by secondary aluminum in 2016 is estimated to be about 8 million tons, of which 90% are cast aluminum alloys and 10% are forged aluminum alloys. After the internal transformation and waste of aluminum processing enterprises, it is roughly about 2 million tons. There are 6 kinds of raw materials that enter the secondary aluminum enterprises. Cast aluminum alloy new scrap accounts for 15-20%, cast aluminum alloy old scrap (imported) accounts for 19-22%, and cast aluminum alloy old scrap accounts for 15-20%. Aluminum alloy new scrap accounts for 20-25%, forged aluminum alloy old scrap accounts for 25-30%, and finally, aluminum ingots (AI00) account for 10-15%.
2. China's aluminum alloy scrap import trend
Looking at China's aluminum alloy scrap imports, the top five countries and regions in terms of scrap aluminum imports in 2016 are: the United States 29.70%, Hong Kong 19.04%, Australia 16.52%, Malaysia 14.15% and the United Kingdom 6.36%. The ranking of export countries and regions to China in 2015: 30.70% in the United States, 15.98% in Hong Kong, 15.79% in Australia, 11.69% in Malaysia, and 4.98% in Germany. In comparison, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and the United Kingdom accounted for an increase in the proportion of aluminum-containing scrap exports to China in 2016.
However, according to customs data, China's aluminum alloy scrap imports have been rising from 2001 to 2010, and the import volume reached the highest in 2010, and the import volume has been on a downward trend in recent years. What is the reason? The main reason is that the amount of domestic aluminum scrap is increasing. The domestic recycling part meets the raw material demand and supply of domestic secondary aluminum enterprises. Taking Shanghai Singh as an example, it has been relying on imports before. In recent years, imports have been decreasing, but output has not decreased. This shows that China's waste market resources are becoming more abundant.
The grading growth trend of China's aluminum alloy scrap:
China's electrolytic aluminum output has ranked first in the world for 16 consecutive years since 2001, during which it produced 230 million tons.
In 2016, China's per capita aluminum consumption has reached 24 kg/person, and its per capita reserves are 130 kg, totaling 178 million tons. To a certain extent, people's living standards are related to aluminum consumption. The higher the aluminum consumption, it proves that living standards are improving. This new index is internationally recognized. As the largest consumer of aluminum, China is also the largest user. With a large population and complete industrial technology, China is a development advantage. GDP growth cannot be separated from the development of the aluminum industry. Therefore, the amount of aluminum used continues to rise, and both the aluminum processing and the development prospects of scrap aluminum are particularly optimistic. It is estimated that by 2020, China will enter the peak period of aluminum consumption, with per capita consumption reaching 35 kg.
Before 2025, China's aluminum scrap is in a period of rapid growth. By 2025, China will become the world's main source of scrap aluminum. It is estimated that within 7 to 8 years, the amount of imported scrap aluminum will not decrease, and with the increase of scrap aluminum output, it can be exported. To export scrap aluminum into products, some companies have already targeted this market. Not only the scrap aluminum market, but also the extension of industries related to scrap aluminum. For example, aluminum ash produces nearly 10 million tons a year, and the state requires disposal. The extension of this industry will have great economic value. Aluminum ash can extract a lot of aluminum. Another example is the use of waste aluminum to make cans. The problem of cans is now highly valued by the country, and the country is also actively promoting industrial development. At present, some companies have begun to form companies to recycle, and efficiently cooperate to solve this problem. In 2016, the output of waste cans was 650,000 tons. All the cans manufactured were high-quality aluminum except for the bottom and upper parts. Before the technical field, the method of degraded use was adopted. How to use it afterwards? Restore use? This is a technical issue to be explored.
In the future, there are two main sources of aluminum alloy scrap in China:
China has always been far ahead in the growth rate of scrap aluminum. In the future, China's main source of aluminum scrap will be the largest piece of cake in the construction sector. Light cars, trucks, cables, etc. will be the main sources of scrap aluminum in the future.
1. Construction field
In terms of construction, the national urban housing increase from 2015 to 2020 is about 7.64 billion square meters, the national urban housing increase from 2015 to 2030 is about 20.38 billion square meters, and the national per capita housing area for urban residents is 35 square meters from 2015 to 2020. -In 2020, the cumulative demolition demand in cities and towns across the country is 1.4 billion square meters, and from 2015 to 2030, the cumulative demolition demand in cities and towns across the country is 5.3 billion square meters. Each building square meter can recycle 1.5 kg of aluminum. Based on 350 million square meters per year, the average recycling rate is 525 million kg. The development potential of aluminum space is huge.
2. Transportation field
As of the end of 2016, the number of motor vehicles in the country was 291 million, of which 194 million were cars. By 2030, based on an average of 250 kilograms of aluminum, there will be 100 million tons of aluminum waiting to be recycled.
President Li finally stated that whether it is aluminum alloy processing or forging, first of all, we must focus on the broad prospects of the current scrap aluminum market, focus on making a fuss in this regard, and consider the extension of the industry. At the same time, to do industry, industry, and business, we must put environmental protection in the first place. The expansion of the industry cannot do without good craftsmanship, excellent equipment, and investment in environmental protection.
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